After grading the LA Kings 2021 draft picks, I’ll next turn to judging their summer work in free agency. And with so many trades of free agents, picks, and salaried players, it will be hard to leave out my assessment of what the Kings did (or did not) do via trades… at least through September.
Before the offseason began, there had been reporting that the Kings were looking to fill a hole on the left side of their defense, as well as one or two top forward positions. This made sense, especially when that defensemen was expected to be a “dynamic” offense-minded player. The Kings scored fewer goals than all but six other teams in the 2021 season, ranking #25, while their goals against was a very respectable #11. Clearly a premier need for this team was scoring, especially seeing how heavily they leaned on their top line of Iafallo-Kopitar-Brown. Their second line featured a rotating cast of youth plus forwards better suited to play under 10 minutes a night, particularly with the absence — first figurative, then literal — of Jeff Carter.
Many believed the Kings needed one, if not two, elite wingers to slot into their top line, nudging Iafallo and perhaps Brown down the lineup. Regardless of whether this effective trio was dissolved, I agreed that the Kings needed to add at least one elite winger, particularly one who was a shoot-first goal-scoring threat. Since the decline and departure of Marian Gaborik, the Kings have lacked a true 30-goal threat at any of their winger positions.
When the Kings traded a couple draft picks early in the offseason for Viktor Arvidsson, I was pleased. Here was a shoot-first top-line winger who had scored over 30 goals before. I shared my minor quibbles with the assets they sent over, but in general I think the Kings and their fans will be very pleased when looking back at this trade. (If we’re scoring at home, I agree with this decision about 84% — with a score of 50% meaning I would be perfectly ambivalent.)
My issue is that I believe this should have been the Kings left jab to their right hook, their opening act to the show-stopper. Viktor Arvidsson is probably best suited to the second line, particularly on a contending team, and I was eager for the the Kings go all in for a top-flight winger. Were there many of these available in free agency? No. Did the Kings have the assets to trade for one. Indeed. Was getting another first line forward a priority? Perhaps.
Following the Arvidsson acquisition, if the Kings had swung for the fences and traded prospects/picks for a truly elite forward, I would have likely been supportive. If the Kings held their fire and waited out the market, perhaps seen how they started the next season with some kids sprinkled into the lineup — and maybe swooped in at the trade deadline — I would have been into it. But taking much of their remaining cap space and pushing it into the center of the table to overpay for a second- to third-line defensive-minded free agent CENTER? This I frowned upon.
Now this reaction is not a knee-jerk response, nor is it based on a superficial assessment of the player’s top line stats (ahem, like never scoring more than 13 goals in a season). I’ve seen the advanced statistics and player cards, and I will grant that Phillip Danault is a solid — perhaps even excellent — center. The issue is just that he’s not the right player, at the right position, at the right time, or at the right price, for my LA Kings.
It starts down the middle. The Kings do not need another center going into the 2021-22 season. Could they have used such a center last season, or the season before? Definitely. Will Danault play a better 2C than anyone currently in the Kings organization to start the season come October 2021? Yes. But I have confidence that by the middle of this season, one of the Kings young prospects will have established themselves as an NHL-caliber center that other players would need to push out of a top-6 role. We could have used 6 months of Danault, but not 6 years. What the Kings really need and should have spent resources on, as mentioned earlier, are wingers (and ones that will pot a lot of goals). Such a winger would not only address a need in the here-and-now, but could fill a need that the prospect pool is not certain to fulfill after Kaliyev and maybe Fagemo.
This is in part because of the type of player Danault represents. A defensive-minded possession monster is not a glaring weakness for the Kings, especially at center. I wear my #11 jersey proudly and believe Anze Kopitar has many more effective seasons in him, but he will be gradually need to move down the lineup and transition into a defensive specialist that can also facilitate offense (especially since he is already an elite offense-generating center that is also a defensive specialist). This is made all the more timely, and feasible, by the cadre of high-ceiling center prospects in the Kings pipeline. Byfield, Vilardi, Turcotte, Kupari (to say nothing of Madden, Thomas, Pinelli, JAD) are pushing, on different timelines, into the lineup, and though some will fall off the center track and wind up on the wing (alongside Kaliyev, Fagemo, and more), it is likely that a least a couple will be optimal at center. With Quinton Byfield considered untouchable and destined for a top line center role at some point, it seems logical that one of Turcotte, Vilardi, or Kupari could slot in at either 2C or 3C, depending on where Kopitar descends. (JAD, Helenius, or any number of affordable options could hold down the 4C in future years.) However, with Danault now committed to for the next six years, all these non-Byfield center prospects are effectively blocked. With Byfield, Kopitar and Danault likely occupying the top three center roles for the near future, there isn’t even enough room for all these high caliber centers to move to wing, considering the investments in Iafallo & Arvidsson, young talents like Kempe, and the aforementioned wing prospects.
Even if Danault was the right player at the right position, I think there could be a decent argument that this is a bad contract. $5.5M is not a ton to pay for a second line center each year, but it will look hefty for a third liner, which the Kings should hope would be Danault’s home sooner rather than later thanks to the emergence of a young center. For a team that desperately needs scoring, this is a lot of money to commit to a player whose calling card is defensive play.
$5.5M might be a more palatable cost if it was just for a year or two of Danault, but the Kings are on the books for this annual cap hit for six seasons. This constrains the Kings in the near term because of the flat cap, and will start to pinch them in upcoming seasons when their youth come off their entry level contracts. Even if the salary cap balloons in the next couple years, the Kings should expect to feel like $5.5M is an overpay for Danault’s production in the latter half of his contract, and by the end I expect will be looking to move this contract to make room for younger, cheaper, and more promising center options with a higher offensive upside — but will find themselves unable to unless they can swallow much of the cap hit.
So I view this as poor management of the Kings strengths — cap space, future talents and financial flexibility — along with poor roster construction and poor asset management. They agreed to a lousy contract for a player they don’t really need come a few months from now, and in doing so block a path to the NHL for their highest-caliber prospects. Eventually the Turcotte’s and Kupari’s will need to graduate from the AHL, but without logical places to slot in to the Kings line-up, their value will start to fall as teams see the Kings in a bind with these prime fruits starting to overripen on the vine. For all these reasons, I rate this transaction a 28% on the Agree-With-the-GM’s-Action-or-Decision (AWGAD) meter. As in, a firm [thumbs down] grade.
Speaking of poor asset management, let’s talk about the defensive corps. Heading into the off-season, the Kings had several RFAs on defense, but no UFAs. With Matt Roy and Sean Walker establishing themselves in the 2019-20 season, it looked like the right side of the D was taking shape (especially after both signed three-year extensions). And based on the games played and minutes logged in the 2020-21 season, it appeared that Mikey Anderson and Tobias Bjornfot were getting more than penciled in for future slots along the left side. This left just one starting line-up spot up for grabs, which Olli Maatta fumbled, the coaching staff failed to give Clague a chance to thrive in, and Kurtis MacDermid occupied until his expansion draft disappearing act. The buzz had been that LA was looking for a “dynamic” late 20s LD in his prime to fill this final position. I support (and still do) a move to this effect, acknowledging it would cost beaucoup bucks and, in a trade, major talent — including one of these promising young D — to go back the other way, like Walker or Clague. I trust the Kings were exploring this option over the summer, though this offensive, young, LD was not really available on the open market. Meaning the Kings were going to have to trade to find such a player.
I’m holding out hope that the Kings could still make such a trade, perhaps midway through the season, but now more likely after this season’s end. And that is because of Alex Edler. Edler, a 35-year old longtime Canuck, was signed as free agent for a single year at $3.5M. It’s hard to complain about one-year free agent contracts, but it’s just upsetting because it doesn’t solve the Kings’ midterm problem after this season, and it creates at least one more short-term problem in the roster. Re-signed restricted free agents Kale Clague (LD), Jacob Moverare (LD) and Austin Strand (RD) are all out of waiver options, meaning another team can claim them if they are not on the Kings’ roster. And all are likely to be sent down this season, with two veterans in Edler and Maatta holding down rosters spot along side Mikey Anderson on the left. Toby Bjornfot has earned a roster spot, though because of his contract flexibility, could see himself in the minors just to make room for the older prospects — which is ridiculous. The Kings should probably look to trade one of Clague, Moverare or Strand in the off-season before they are lost for nothing on the waiver wire. My best case is of course they are part of the package that nets them someone like a Jakob Chychrun or Zach Werenski.
I give the Edler signing a 40% on the AWGAD meter, meaning I still don’t support the move but I understand it, and I’m close to begrudgingly accepting it. And that is because I believe this was not at the top of GM Rob Blake’s to-do list, but rather was a back-up back-up plan. The “offensive young defenseman” he was looking for was not available on the trade market, and he wasn’t able to compete for Dougie Hamilton in the free agent market. (And no, the Kings should never have seriously considered Seth Jones.) With that reality facing him, and not having confidence in his roster options on the left side, Blake bought insurance for one year with a proven veteran. Edler probably has another productive year in him at the least, especially if the Kings don’t ask him to play a major role and eat huge minutes. He sounds like an excellent partner on the third line for Sean Walker.
One can really talk themselves into liking this signing if they ignore and abandon the older wave of Kings defensive prospects, especially Clague and Moverare, who probably deserve a shot. Maybe I’m irrationally fearing the waiver wire to be some dangerous quicksand when it’s instead a defunct tar pit, but I’d hate to lose either of these prospects. Hopefully Maatta is offered up first on the waiver wire, then maybe Strand since we’re stacked on the right side, and Clague and Moverare make the roster… by pushing off Bjornfot to the AHL? That doesn’t sound right. More likely is that Bjornfot makes the roster, and Maatta stays as the depth 7th D-man, meaning both Clague and Moverare have to do the dance with the waiver wire (along with Strand, who may pass through). All of this is to illustrate there are no great options for this cadre of young, promising defensemen the Kings possess now that they’ve signed Alex Edler in free agency.
The only hope I’m holding out is that Blake has one more big move in him to pull the rug out from everyone, trading one (or two?) of the aforementioned defensemen for either a promising mid-20s left defensemen to anchor the first or second pair for years to come (i.e. not Edler), or for a bonafide threat to pot over 30 goals at forward (Vlad Tarasenko anyone?). Because I’m still not confident our current roster possesses such a talent (though some may be on the cusp of making the team). But I’ll discuss potential moves, 2021-22 roster construction, and other off-season thoughts in future writing.
Till then, let’s enjoy these prospects while we have them!
The Kings of Kings 